Research Archive

A sea turtle seen from above, swimming through clear azure waters
Research| May 23, 2023

Integrating Nature Into Debt Sustainability Analysis

Multilateral financial organisations would be making a “grave omission” if they fail to include biodiversity-related risks in debt sustainability analyses, according to this report. …

Written by Finance for Biodiversity Initiative & SOAS Centre for Sustainable Finance
Dark storm clouds hang over a tropical sea and coastline
Research| May 4, 2023

Climate Stress Tests

Are Banks Fit for the Green Transition?

Deutsche Bank research highlights the growing pressure on banks to improve their climate risk management and disclosure frameworks, and argues that initial stress tests are “just the beginning”.

Written by SUERF
Hand removes blocks with the word Risk
Research| April 11, 2023

Results of the 2022 Climate Risk Stress Test of the Eurosystem Balance Sheet

The European Central Bank’s 2022 stress test finds that the Eurosystem’s balance sheet is materially exposed to climate risks and that the corporate bond portfolio is the primary source of exposure.

Written by European Central Bank
Blackened, leafless trees stand surrounded by ash following a wildfire
Research| February 23, 2023

Macroprudential Policies and Climate Risks

This paper argues that macroprudential policy is needed to prevent climate risks becoming systemic risks, and proposes ways to increase the resilience of EU banks.

Written by European Banking Institute
An aerial view of a conifer forest which has been partially cut down
Research| February 10, 2023

Building Blocks for Central Banks to Develop Nature Scenarios

This paper says climate risk modelling is improving, but is insufficient for capturing broader nature-related risks. The authors review nature-economy models and give guidance for improving their use in finance.

Written by The Inspire Research Network
Close-up detail of a sculpture in the shape of a euro symbol, surrounding by five yellow stars
Research| February 7, 2023

The Effects of Climate Change on the Natural Rate of Interest

A Critical Survey

This working paper by the ECB says climate change may reduce natural interest, creating serious issues for monetary policymaking. The authors say an orderly transition would mitigate this, and central banks should address carbon biases to meet mandates.

Written by European Central Bank
A person wades through floodwaters outside the Doge's Palace in Venice
Research| September 20, 2022

NGFS Scenarios for Central Banks and Supervisors

The NGFS has released the third iteration of their climate scenarios, updating them with the latest economic and climate data, current national policy commitments and improved modelling of physical risks. …

Written by Network for Greening the Financial System
A solar panel and a wind turbine against a blue sky
Research| September 15, 2022

Not Too Late

Confronting the Growing Odds of a Late and Disorderly Transition

This NGFS paper compares current fossil energy price increases to an involuntary price on carbon, arguing that they offer a “narrow but unique opportunity” to accelerate the transition to net zero.

Written by Network for Greening the Financial System
Dried, shrivelled maize plants against a blue sky
Research| September 1, 2022

Economic Impacts of Climate Change

Exploring Short-term Climate-related Shocks with Macroeconomic Models

Based on input from 48 global banks and investors, this report introduces three new climate-driven macroeconomic shock scenarios, exploring their economic implications using a commonly used short-term global econometric model.

Written by UNEP FI
Four adults and a child stand in floodwaters in floodwaters in a Bangladeshi village
Research| September 1, 2022

Acute Climate Risks in the Financial System

Examining the Utility of Climate Model Projections

This paper finds that top-down climate risk approaches, such as those used by the NGFS, are of limited value at the granular scale relevant to the financial sector.

Written by A J Pitman et al
A satellite image showing a large hurricane to the east of the Gulf of Mexico
Research| August 10, 2022

The Macroprudential Challenge of Climate Change

This joint ECB/ESRB report examines how climate shocks can affect the European financial system, identifies transmission channels and amplifiers of climate risk and finds significant threats to European financial stability.

Written by European Central Bank & European Systemic Risk Board

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