Calls for fossil fuel phase-out resume ahead of Cop31

Key points

• Brazil has published a voluntary roadmap for countries to transition away from fossil fuels, days before Cop31.
• Only five of 71 countries still pledge to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, new research from LSE finds.
• Just seven of 75 countries are on track for 1.5C, and climate finance pledges are falling short.

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Brazil, which hosted last year’s climate summit, has revived discussions around the need for countries to phase out fossil fuels in order to limit the worst impacts of climate change.

Just days before the annual Cop climate talks are set to resume in Antalya, Turkey, the Cop30 host published a targeted roadmap to transition away from fossil fuel systems in the global energy sector.

“We need instruments and ways to accelerate implementation, because climate change is happening much faster than the pace of negotiations,” said Cop30 president André Corrêa do Lago.

Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who recently won a surprise election victory to secure a fourth term, has been hailed as an environmental defender for combatting deforestation despite favouring oil expansion and exploration.

Central to the roadmap is an index that examines countries’ exposure to fossil fuels and their capacity to transition based on three complementary pillars;

• energy demand, which takes into account energy consumption in transportation, industry, and buildings;
• energy supply, which maps falling demand for fossil fuel production and the expansion of low-emission energy systems;
• and a country’s overall economic set up, including fiscal dependence, investment, and the cost of capital.

“Where Brazil is located is very different from where Guyana, Norway, the United States, or Canada are located,” said Cop30 executive director Ana Toni. “The type of fossil fuel in each of these countries has distinct characteristics. Instead of imagining that there is a single answer to such a complex problem, we divide it into archetypes,” she added. 

While the roadmap is voluntary, it has the benefit of not needing to be negotiated by countries at UN climate summits.

Brazil has also suggested launching a task force, with coordinated actions until 2033 to transition away from fossil fuels. This is in line with initiatives announced at the first international conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands in April. 

Visible retreat

 

At Cop28 in Dubai three years ago, countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels but since then progress has stalled.

New research by the TPI Global Climate Transition Centre at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) has found that only five of 71 assessed countries have an active pledge to phase out fossil fuel subsidies. Those countries include Austria, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovenia. 

The researchers suggest that this weakening of climate commitments coincides with a political shift towards energy security, driven by geopolitical tensions and fiscal pressures. This is particularly visible among G7 countries, given previous statements from the group mentioned the now-defunct commitment to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies by 2025.

Despite this retreat, the LSE researchers say initiatives such as the international conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels show that some countries continue to pursue coordinated action on phasing out fossil fuels.

The LSE report also shows that, among 75 countries with a quantified 2030 emissions reduction target, only seven have an emissions trend consistent with limiting long-term global average temperature increases to 1.5C and 16 with below 2C.

Meanwhile, commitments to provide international climate finance have also taken a battering, with Japan, Germany and France singled out for failing to meet their proportional share in the past year.

The new collective quantified goal on climate finance, established at Cop29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, calls for developed countries to mobilise at least US$300bn a year for developing countries by 2035.

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